Brexit without transition is like skydiving without insurance | Simon Jenkins | Opinion
Of course there must be a Brexit transition deal. Brexit without transition is skydiving without insurance. Leavers and remainers must agree on that. The Brexit talks are clearly not going well, even on the simplest of issues. The idea that in 18 months every one of a hundred topics will be done and dusted is stupid. No transition is flat-Earthism.
But that is easier said than done. At present the two areas in most urgent need of reassurance â€" tariffs and people movement â€" are already shifting ministerial minds. Yesterday clear signals were given that a deal of two to four years of open borders was likely after 2019, if for no other reason than that anything else would spell disaster for the catering, health, farming and construction sectors. In addition, business leaders have left Downing Street in no doubt that to leave them facing a “cliff edge†of trade barriers on day one would be insane.
The trade minister, Liam Fox, was right to point out that transition is not too hard. It simply means that nothing changes. Borders remain open. People can flow in and out. Britain is already part of a zero-tariff zone with the EU, and has regulatory equivalence, the twin bases of any trading relationship. If they need formalising, that can be had “off the shelfâ€, through the mechanism of the European Economic Area (the Norway option) or the European Free Trade Area (the Switzerland option). Where there is a will, there is a way.
Two problems remain. One is that transition is not a certainty. Every indication that talks are not going well or that continental countries are lining up to steal British business is one more blow to economic confidence. Ministers can posture and dither and score points in the short term. Business must make decisions. Workers must know whether to return home. Just now, only a fool would gamble on David Davis “beating†Michel Barnier in Brussels.
A second and more serious problem is political. One person’s Brexit transition is another’s back-door remain. Every concession by Davis, every acceptance that Brexit is more complicated than at first thought, is a red rag to the leave bulls. At some point, Theresa May must start cashing in her Brexit chips. She must confront her backbencher Brexiters and tell them to get real.
Britain is going to leave the EU, as commanded by the electorate. But leave has a thousand meanings. Just now there are two options: the medium-term security of transition or instant chaos. Transition is uncertain, but it is better than chaos.
0 Response to "Brexit without transition is like skydiving without insurance | Simon Jenkins | Opinion"
Posting Komentar