Six months into America's nightmare, how likely is Trump's impeachment? | Richard Wolffe | Opinion
Donald Trump Jr is apparently feeling “miserable†and wants “these four years to be overâ€, according to People magazine. We feel your pain, Don, we really do. At the six month stage of your father’s presidency, we all want these four years to be over. At least that’s one way President Trump has brought us closer together.
Since we have to suffer through this purgatory together, we may as well tally up the toll of the last 180 days â€" and look forward to how the next 1260 days will end. Like the long term inmates of Alcatraz, we know that escape is a highly risky proposition that is the figment of our shared despair and the subject of some wonderful myth-making.
First, let’s look at how far we’ve traveled together. President Trump started his term in office with approval ratings of 45% and equal disapproval ratings. Since then, his approval rating has slumped 8 points and his disapproval rating has hiked 12 points, in Gallup’s presidential tracker.
Reporters have written endless stories about the loyalty of Trump voters to their president, but these narratives do not square with the numbers. It’s very hard to get elected, or re-elected, with 37% approval.
For some context, it’s worth noting that Barack Obama was 22 points higher at this six-month stage of his presidency, in the middle of the worst recession in living memory. Gerald Ford was languishing at this level at the same stage of his presidency after he pardoned Richard Nixon, who left office in disgrace with 24% approval. At his current pace, Donald Trump will hit Nixon’s departure numbers in another 10 months. Just in time for the congressional elections.
But enough of the fake news. What about all those legislative accomplishments? Trump himself has told us that “with the exception of FDR†no president has been as great as he. “There’s never been a president that’s done more in this time,†he told reporters last month. “Who’s passed more legislation, who’s done more things than we’ve done.â€
If you missed all these historic moments, you weren’t alone. Among Trump’s legislative record is the renaming of the veteran’s outpatient clinic in Pago Pago, American Samoa. He also appointed three people to the board of regents at the Smithsonian.
Mere trifles? I think not.
Yes, we all know about the collapse of his big Obamacare repeal, despite the celebration of its passage through the half-way House of Representatives. OK, so there’s been no infrastructure investment, or Mexican border wall, or tax reform. But Rome wasn’t built in a day, and nor was the Trump hotel in Washington.
Presidential honeymoons come and go, along with congressional majorities. But the Trump legacy has already begun to write itself. Who else could have fundamentally realigned America’s position in the world as quickly as the master builder himself? Global confidence in the US has plummeted 42 points since Trump moved into the Oval Office. Only one country has gained anything like that amount of confidence in Trump’s America at the same time: Russia.
In his first six months, Trump has pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, alongside war-torn Syria and the noble state of Nicaragua. Having dismayed most of the world, Trump sent the only man he really trusts â€" Donald J Trump â€" on a one-man mission to make friends with the French. This he accomplished by traveling to Paris, shaking hands for a very long time with the French president and admiring his wife’s physique out loud. In Paris, they say Trump’s legacy is a fait accompli.
So what if he spooked his Nato allies and cozied up to Vladimir Putin over dinner at the G20 in Hamburg? Conventional politicians do conventional things like nurturing allies and isolating enemies. Trump was elected to blow up that model, if not the rest of the planet.
Trump himself has marked this auspicious six-month moment by hosting a panel investigating the fraudulent votes that he suspects undermined his own election. This is once again a presidential first: a sitting president who insists that his own victory was tainted. In fact, the vice-chair of his own panel admits that he doesn’t know for sure if Trump’s votes were above board.
Talking of tampering with elections, Trump capped his half-birthday in-office with a doozy of an interview with the New York Times in which he dwelled at length on the Russia investigation that is already undermining his entire presidency.
In particular, Trump lamented appointing an attorney general who failed to stop the Russia investigation. Perhaps Jeff Sessions can ask James Comey how to sign a great book deal after getting iced by Trump. The former FBI director will surely have some friendly tips for his old boss.
What does the next chapter in the Trump Saga look like? There are only so many possible fates for our president: an early departure, defeat in his re-election bid or a second term. The first scenario hinges on the outcome of the congressional elections next year. The second and third depend entirely on what follows.
Early departure is not, like Nixon, going to happen voluntarily. Even in a coerced state, the president shows no sense of shame or expectation of defeat. Trump will need to be impeached and convicted at his impeachment trial, in order to leave office ahead of an election.
For impeachment to happen, Democrats need to win back at least the House. So far, the signs look promising: the generic congressional ballot gives Democrats a 14-point lead, which is pretty much what they were polling before they swept both sides of Congress at Bush’s low point in 2006 and Obama’s high point in 2008.
Let’s assume the House under Nancy Pelosi cannot help itself with impeachment: there are just too many high crimes and misdemeanors to choose from â€" too many secret Russian meetings, too many dubious financial arrangements, and too much obstruction of justice.
What happens at Trump’s trial in the Senate? Even with Democrats swiping back control of the Senate â€" against all the odds, given the seats up for election next year â€" they will never enjoy the two-thirds majority required to remove Trump from office.
If you think it was hard for Republicans to vote to repeal and replace Obamacare, you might ask yourself how hard it is for them to repeal and replace Donald Trump.
Under the constant attack of impeachment, and unable to pass any meaningful legislation, Trump will likely do what every other impotent president has done: focus on foreign affairs. He will also be sorely tempted to do what no other sane president has done: start a war to make himself look something other than impotent.
The provocations are not hard to find if you take Iran and North Korea at their word and ignore all the consequences of military action. Trump is especially expert at failing to see the consequences of his actions.
So after another three and a half years of a half-baked war, endless Russia revelations, unethical family business deals and a running Twitter commentary on all things Fox and Friends, President Trump will run for re-election with the national debate entirely focused on his specialist subject: Donald Trump.
Should he stay in office when the Senate could not force him out? Is he qualified to remain as president when he has compromised national security with the Russians so many times? Who but Trump could tackle the urgent challenge of the renaming of the main post office in Guam?
Anyone can talk about making America great again. Only one man can talk about making Trump great again. That may be his only mission for the next several years of our great national nightmare, but it is one he is uniquely qualified to accept.
For Democrats, the challenge is going to be to make the national conversation about something other than one loud, large man who is unhealthily obsessed with himself.
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